Damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t. The Congress’ Telangana problem is massive indeed. And it does not have to do entirely with the complex question of division of resources between the two new states that would be carved out of the present day Andhra Pradesh, or even the eventual status of Hyderabad.
It is about the political survival of the party in the only southern state where it had a distinct advantage over its political rivals not long ago.
The Congress had won 29 seats from the state in 2004 and 33 in 2009. The healthy contingents on both occasions had made the formation of two UPA government easier.
However, politics in Andhra Pradesh has undergone a tectonic shift ever since the death of YS Rajasekhara Reddy. It is now getting clearer that the party, which is shrinking rapidly in many other states, would lose the next general elections in Andhra Pradesh, divided or undivided.
That explains the confusion in the party over giving a go ahead to the separate state of Telangana. If it comes into being – an announcement is expected today – the Congress loses the other two regions of Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra, which account for 25 Lok Sabha seats.
Moreover, most seats in the Telangana region, which accounts for 17 seats, are likely to go to the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), the regional outfit spearheading the separate statehood demand.
The party’s effort at damage control would involve getting the TRS on its side – possibly by way of a merger – after the formation of Telangana and winning over YSR Congress chief Jagan Reddy. Jagan is overwhelmingly popular in the Rayalaseema region and he could make a difference to the Congress’ prospects if he makes common cause with the party. Both the propositions, however, are difficult.
The Congress is widely perceived to have set the CBI on him and he has been the gainer from the public perception that he is being victimised by the Centre. And there’s no specific reason why the TRS would not like to maintain its independent status to have a better bargaining position.
They would also have to contend with the raw passions that the bifurcation of the state would unleash. Sensing the popular backlash that is store, Congress leaders from the Seemandhra region have already threatened to quit the party. If reports in certain sections of the media are to be believed Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy has already tendered his resignation to the Congress chief. After the decision is announced, if it is done at all, the party is likely to collapse in a heap. It would be a long, long haul rebuilding base.
It is not yet clear who would benefit from the Congress’ fall – none of the opposition parties in the state is greatly placed either, but none has as much at stake at the centre as the Congress.
Like we said earlier, the party could lose the 2014 elections in Andhra Pradesh.
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